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学科主题: Limnology; Oceanography
题名: The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast experiments using the FGOALS-g model
作者: Yan, L ; Yu, YQ
通讯作者: yanl@scsio.ac.cn
关键词: spring prediction barrier ; ensemble ; ENSO ; hindcast experiments ; equal likelihood
刊名: CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY
发表日期: 2012
卷: 30, 期:6, 页:1093-1104
部门归属: [Yan Li] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, S China Sea Inst Oceanol, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Yan Li; Yu Yongqiang] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Atmospher Sci & Geophys Fluid Dynam, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
项目归属: LTO
摘要: The Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model-gamil (FGOALS-g) was used to study the spring prediction barrier (SPB) in an ensemble system. This coupled model was developed and maintained at the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG). There are two steps in our hindcast experiments. The first is to integrate the coupled model continuously with sea surface temperature (SST) nudging, from 1971 to 2006. The second is to carry out a series of one-year hindcasts without SST nudging, by adopting initial values from the first step on January 1 (st), April 1 (st), July 1 (st), and October 1 (st), from 1982 to 2005. We generate 10 ensemble members for a particular start date (1 (st) ) by choosing different atmospheric and land conditions around the hindcast start date (1 (st) through 10 (th) ). To estimate the predicted SST, two methods are used: (1) Anomaly Correlation Coefficient and its rate of decrease; and (2) Talagrand distribution and its standard deviation. Results show that FGOALS-g offers a reliable ensemble system with realistic initial atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and high anomaly correlation (> 0.5) within 6 month lead time. Further, the ensemble approach is effective, in that the anomaly correlation of ensemble mean is much higher than that of most individual ensemble members. The SPB exists in the FGOALS-g ensemble system, as shown by anomaly correlation and equal likelihood. Nevertheless, the role of the ensemble mean in reducing the SPB of ENSO prediction is significant. The rate of decrease of the ensemble mean is smaller than the largest deviations by 0.04-0.14. At the same time, the ensemble system "equal likelihood" declines during spring. An ensemble mean helps give a correct prediction direction, departing from largely-deviated ensemble members.
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000311286500022
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10077
Appears in Collections:热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)_期刊论文

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Yan, L; Yu, YQ.The spring prediction barrier in ENSO hindcast experiments using the FGOALS-g model,CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,2012,30(6):1093-1104
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