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Variability of tropical cyclone occurrence date in the South China Sea and its relationship with SST warming
Yan, YF; Qi, YQ; Zhou, W; youfangyan@scsio.ac.cn
2012
Source PublicationDYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS
ISSN0377-0265
Volume55-56Pages:45-59
AbstractAnalyses of tropical cyclone (TC) occurrence dates in the South China Sea (SCS) for the past 60 yrs indicate a trend toward an earlier occurrence of the first annual TC in the SCS. On the other hand, a significant increasing trend in sea surface temperature (SST) in early summer (May-June) has been observed in the SCS. The negative correlation between the first annual TC occurrence date and SST in early summer during the period 1945-2009 suggests that the earlier occurrence of the first annual TC is related not only to the increasing of SST in the SCS, but also to the variability of SST in the Nino3.4 region. Quantitative analysis of the SCS TC occurrence date and SST by quantile regression also reveals such a relationship and confirms that the SCS early-season TCs tend to occur earlier when SSTs in the SCS and Nino3.4 region are increasing. Since the SCS SST anomalies are influenced by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the relationship between the first annual TC occurrence date and ENSO-related large-scale atmospheric circulation including 850-hPa relative vorticity (RV), vertical wind shear (VWS), and moist static energy (MSE) in early summer are also investigated. It is found that variations of VWS and MSE have influences on first annual SCS TC occurrence dates, although there is not a statistically significant relationship between 850-hPa RV and first annual SCS TC occurrence date. These results suggest that the earlier occurrence of the first annual TC in the SCS is influenced not only by local SST, but also by ENSO through the alternation of early summer VWS and MSE in the SCS. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Department[Yan, Youfang; Qi, Yiquan] Chinese Acad Sci, S China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Zhou, Wen] City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Energy & Environm, Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Ctr, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
KeywordTropical Cyclone Occurrence Date Sst Enso South China Sea
Subject AreaGeochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
Language英语
Funding ProjectLTO
WOS IDWOS:000306047800003
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10171
Collection热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
Corresponding Authoryoufangyan@scsio.ac.cn
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yan, YF,Qi, YQ,Zhou, W,et al. Variability of tropical cyclone occurrence date in the South China Sea and its relationship with SST warming[J]. DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS,2012,55-56:45-59.
APA Yan, YF,Qi, YQ,Zhou, W,&youfangyan@scsio.ac.cn.(2012).Variability of tropical cyclone occurrence date in the South China Sea and its relationship with SST warming.DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS,55-56,45-59.
MLA Yan, YF,et al."Variability of tropical cyclone occurrence date in the South China Sea and its relationship with SST warming".DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS 55-56(2012):45-59.
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