AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE
Li, JM; jli@scsio.ac.cn
2012
发表期刊FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN
ISSN1018-4619
卷号21期号:8A页码:2255-2265
摘要Uncertainty evaluation of ecological model is critical for improving prediction and identifying effective management strategies of shallow lakes. In this study, an automatic calibration approach was developed to precisely evaluate the values of uncertainties. In the approach, the inherent and environmental uncertainties are reflected from the evaluation of parameter values and the input of boundary conditions, respectively. By the approach, both the optimal values of parameters and the uncertainty levels of parameters and boundary conditions are accurately calibrated against observation data. The approach was coupled with an ecological model and applied to a case study. Modeling results showed good agreement between simulations and observation data in the total trends as well as the detailed distributions. Comparing with deterministic modeling and arbitrary stochastic modeling, the calibrated stochastic modeling supported by the approach predicted the potential risk of remediation measures in a more reasonable form. These results suggest that the proposed approach and its coupling model are useful tools for uncertainty assessment and environmental management in shallow lake systems.
部门归属[Li, Junmin] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, S China Sea Inst Oceanol, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Li, Junmin] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Dept Environm Sci, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
关键词Uncertainty Evaluation Automatic Calibration Approach Ecological Model Shallow Lake Stochastic Model
学科领域Environmental Sciences
语种英语
资助项目LTO
WOS记录号WOS:000309326100015
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10229
专题热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
通讯作者jli@scsio.ac.cn
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GB/T 7714
Li, JM,jli@scsio.ac.cn. AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE[J]. FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN,2012,21(8A):2255-2265.
APA Li, JM,&jli@scsio.ac.cn.(2012).AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE.FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN,21(8A),2255-2265.
MLA Li, JM,et al."AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE".FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN 21.8A(2012):2255-2265.
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