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AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE
Li, JM; jli@scsio.ac.cn
2012
Source PublicationFRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN
ISSN1018-4619
Volume21Issue:8APages:2255-2265
AbstractUncertainty evaluation of ecological model is critical for improving prediction and identifying effective management strategies of shallow lakes. In this study, an automatic calibration approach was developed to precisely evaluate the values of uncertainties. In the approach, the inherent and environmental uncertainties are reflected from the evaluation of parameter values and the input of boundary conditions, respectively. By the approach, both the optimal values of parameters and the uncertainty levels of parameters and boundary conditions are accurately calibrated against observation data. The approach was coupled with an ecological model and applied to a case study. Modeling results showed good agreement between simulations and observation data in the total trends as well as the detailed distributions. Comparing with deterministic modeling and arbitrary stochastic modeling, the calibrated stochastic modeling supported by the approach predicted the potential risk of remediation measures in a more reasonable form. These results suggest that the proposed approach and its coupling model are useful tools for uncertainty assessment and environmental management in shallow lake systems.
Department[Li, Junmin] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, S China Sea Inst Oceanol, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Li, Junmin] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Dept Environm Sci, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
KeywordUncertainty Evaluation Automatic Calibration Approach Ecological Model Shallow Lake Stochastic Model
Subject AreaEnvironmental Sciences
Language英语
Funding ProjectLTO
WOS IDWOS:000309326100015
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10229
Collection热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
Corresponding Authorjli@scsio.ac.cn
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, JM,jli@scsio.ac.cn. AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE[J]. FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN,2012,21(8A):2255-2265.
APA Li, JM,&jli@scsio.ac.cn.(2012).AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE.FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN,21(8A),2255-2265.
MLA Li, JM,et al."AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE".FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN 21.8A(2012):2255-2265.
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