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学科主题: Environmental Sciences
题名: AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE
作者: Li, JM
通讯作者: jli@scsio.ac.cn
关键词: Uncertainty evaluation ; Automatic calibration approach ; Ecological model ; Shallow lake ; Stochastic model
刊名: FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN
发表日期: 2012
卷: 21, 期:8A, 页:2255-2265
部门归属: [Li, Junmin] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, S China Sea Inst Oceanol, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Li, Junmin] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Environm Sci & Engn, Dept Environm Sci, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China
项目归属: LTO
摘要: Uncertainty evaluation of ecological model is critical for improving prediction and identifying effective management strategies of shallow lakes. In this study, an automatic calibration approach was developed to precisely evaluate the values of uncertainties. In the approach, the inherent and environmental uncertainties are reflected from the evaluation of parameter values and the input of boundary conditions, respectively. By the approach, both the optimal values of parameters and the uncertainty levels of parameters and boundary conditions are accurately calibrated against observation data. The approach was coupled with an ecological model and applied to a case study. Modeling results showed good agreement between simulations and observation data in the total trends as well as the detailed distributions. Comparing with deterministic modeling and arbitrary stochastic modeling, the calibrated stochastic modeling supported by the approach predicted the potential risk of remediation measures in a more reasonable form. These results suggest that the proposed approach and its coupling model are useful tools for uncertainty assessment and environmental management in shallow lake systems.
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000309326100015
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内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10229
Appears in Collections:热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)_期刊论文

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Li, JM.AN OBSERVATION-BASED UNCERTAINTY EVALUATION COUPLING AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION APPROACH FOR ECOLOGICAL MODEL OF SHALLOW LAKE,FRESENIUS ENVIRONMENTAL BULLETIN,2012,21(8A):2255-2265
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