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学科主题: Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Water Resources
题名: On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study
作者: Lai, ZJ ; Hao, S ; Peng, SQ ; Liu, B ; Gu, XQ ; Qian, YK
通讯作者: speng@scsio.ac.cn
关键词: Tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast ; Scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) ; Improvement ; Sensitivity
刊名: NATURAL HAZARDS
发表日期: 2014
卷: 73, 期:3, 页:1353-1368
收录类别: sci
部门归属: [Lai, Zhijuan ; Peng, Shiqiu ; Qian, Yu-Kun] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China ; [Lai, Zhijuan ; Hao, Sai] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China ; [Hao, Sai] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China ; [Liu, Bei] Guangdong Ocean Univ, Inst Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang 524088, Peoples R China ; [Gu, Xiangqian] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Sever Weather, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
项目归属: LTO
资助者: Innovation Key Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX2-EW-208]; Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China (MOST) [2011CB403505]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41076009, 41075080]; Hundred Talent Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
摘要: A dynamical downscaling approach based on scale-selective data assimilation (SSDA) is applied to tropical cyclone (TC) track forecasts. The results from a case study of super Typhoon Megi (2010) show that the SSDA approach is very effective in improving the TC track forecasts by fitting the large-scale wind field from the regional model to that from the global forecast system (GFS) forecasts while allowing the small-scale circulation to develop freely in the regional model. A comparison to the conventional spectral-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) indicates that the SSDA approach outperforms the FDDA in TC track forecasts because the former allows the small-scale features in a regional model to develop more freely than the latter due to different techniques used. In addition, a number of numerical experiments are performed to investigate the sensitivity of SSDA's effect in TC track forecasts to some parameters in SSDA, including the cutoff wave number, the vertical layers of the atmosphere being adjusted, and the interval of SSDA implementation. The results show that the improvements are sensitive in different extent to the above three parameters.
原文出处: 查看原文
WOS记录号: WOS:000340492700011
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内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10512
Appears in Collections:热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)_期刊论文

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Lai, ZJ; Hao, S; Peng, SQ; Liu, B; Gu, XQ; Qian, YK.On improving tropical cyclone track forecasts using a scale-selective data assimilation approach: a case study,NATURAL HAZARDS,2014,73(3):1353-1368
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