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学科主题: Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
题名: Future Climate in the Tibetan Plateau from a Statistical Regional Climate Model
作者: [Zhu, Xiuhua] Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany ; [Wang, Weiqiang] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China ; [Fraedrich, Klaus] Univ Hamburg, Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany ; [Fraedrich, Klaus] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany
通讯作者: weiqiang.wang@scsio.ac.cn
关键词: Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Statistical forecasting
刊名: JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
发表日期: 2013
卷: 26, 期:24, 页:10125-10138
部门归属: LTO
资助者: Wang is supported by the "Hundred Talent Program" of Chinese Academy of Sciences. Thanks to Hermann Osterle for providing the data analyzed and to Frank Sielmann for helpful discussions. The authors would like to express thanks to anonymous reviewers for their helpful suggestions and comments.
摘要: The authors use a statistical regional climate model [Statistical Regional Model (STAR)] to project the Tibetan Plateau (TP) climate for the period 2015-50. Reanalysis datasets covering 1958-2001 are used as a substitute of observations and resampled by STAR to optimally fit prescribed linear temperature trends derived from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) simulations for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP4.5 scenarios. To assess the related uncertainty, temperature trends from carefully selected best/worst ensemble members are considered. In addition, an extra projection is forced by observed temperature trends in 1958-2001. The following results are obtained: (i) Spatial average temperature will increase by 0.6 degrees-0.9 degrees C; the increase exceeds 1 degrees C in all months except in boreal summer, thus indicating a reduced annual cycle; and daily minimum temperature rises faster than daily maximum temperature, resulting in a narrowing of the diurnal range of near-surface temperature. (ii) Precipitation increase mainly occurs in early summer and autumn possibly because of an earlier onset and later withdrawal of the Asian summer monsoon. (iii) Both frost and ice days decrease by 1-2 days in spring, early summer, and autumn, and the decrease of frost days on the annual course is inversely related to the precipitation increase. (iv) Degree-days increase all over the TP with peak amplitude in the Qaidam Basin and the southern TP periphery, which will result in distinct melting of the local seasonal frozen ground, and the annual temperature range will decrease with stronger amplitude in south TP.
语种: 英语
原文出处: 查看原文
WOS记录号: WOS:000327561700015
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/10868
Appears in Collections:热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)_期刊论文

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[Zhu, Xiuhua] Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; [Wang, Weiqiang] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Fraedrich, Klaus] Univ Hamburg, Inst Meteorol, Hamburg, Germany; [Fraedrich, Klaus] Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany.Future Climate in the Tibetan Plateau from a Statistical Regional Climate Model,JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2013,26(24):10125-10138
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