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两类El Ni?o在耦合模式中模拟情况的评估及其对南海海温的影响; Evaluation of the ability of coupled model in simulating two types of El Ni?o and their impacts on the SST variability in the South China Sea
Thesis Advisor王鑫
Degree Discipline环境工程
Keyword东部型el ni?o 中部型el ni?o Cmip5 North Pacific Oscillation 南海增暖
Abstract本文评估了北京气候中心第二代全球数据同化系统 (Second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing Climate Center, BCC_GODAS2.0)对两类厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)的模拟能力。分析表明,BCC_GODAS2.0的海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)数据能够模拟出东部型El Ni?o和中部型El Ni?o(El Ni?o Modoki)的主要特征,并且能模拟出El Ni?o Modoki I and Modoki II事件的特征及其与印度洋的关系。通过对Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5(CMIP5)多模式的历史情景实验中对北太平洋振荡(North Pacific Oscillation, NPO)和中部型El Ni?o关系的模拟能力的评估,发现在所用到的17个模式中有7个模式模拟的中部型El Ni?o发生频率和NPO之间有着和观测数据一致的正相关关系。对多模式集合平均数据进行CEOF分解,发现能模拟出NPO和中部型El Ni?o发生频数之间的正相关关系的模式,都可以模拟出以下的物理过程:副热带太平洋的SSTA和表面风异常在春季的空间耦合分布类似于太平洋经向模(Pacific Meridional Mode,PMM),即热带中心太平洋到副热带东北太平洋上分布着由NPO引起的西南风异常,下垫面伴随着与其相耦合的暖海温异常;热带东太平洋上有东风异常和相应的冷海温异常;赤道中太平洋有由南至北的越赤道气流。这些过程造成热带中西太平洋的西风与热带东太平洋的东风的辐合,导致热带中太平洋海温增暖,从而生成中部型El Ni?o事件。而模拟能力差的模式则没有这些特征。这将有助于揭示中纬度气候系统与中部型El Ni?o的关系。
Other AbstractThe performance of BCC_GODAS2.0 in predicting the characteristics of the two types of El Ni?o are evaluated in this paper. BCC_GODAS2.0 is able to capture the main features of the eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni?o and central Pacific El Ni?o (CP). In addition, the relationships between the Indian Ocean and the two types of CP El Ni?oare also reproduced. Through evaluating the relationship between the frequency of CP El Ni?o and NPO simulated in the historical projection runs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we find out that there are seven of the seventeen CMIP5 models in our study exhibit good performance in simulating the positive correlation between NPO index and frequency of CP El Ni?o which is consistent with the results in observation. Combined empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysisindicates that the models which can reproduce the positive correlation between the occurrence frequency of CP El Ni?oand NPOhave the followingphysical process: the spatial pattern of SSTA and sea surface wind anomalies in subtropical Pacific resemble the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) pattern, with the anomalous southwesterlies located from the subtropical eastern North Pacific to central equatorial Pacific associated with the southern pole of the NPO, leading to an anomalous warming there through the positive wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback process. In addition, there are anomalous easterlies and cold SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and cross-equatorial flows in the western-central equatorial Pacific. The anomalous westerlies over the western-central equatorial Pacific and the anomalous easterlies over the eastern equatorial Pacific, causing convergence in the central equatorial Pacific and in turn inducing anomalous warming in the central equatorial Pacific through air-sea interaction. But spatial pattern of the second CEOF of poor performance models have different characteristics. This analysis will contribute to revealing the connection between mid-latitude climate system and CP El Ni?o.
Document Type学位论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
陈梦燕. 两类El Ni?o在耦合模式中模拟情况的评估及其对南海海温的影响, Evaluation of the ability of coupled model in simulating two types of El Ni?o and their impacts on the SST variability in the South China Sea[D],2016.
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