Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Yun; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao; wenzhou@cityu.edu.hk
2015
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
卷号44期号:9-10页码:2859-2872
摘要A hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960-2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191-205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades.
部门归属[Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen] City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Energy & Environm, Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Ctr, Hong Kong 00852, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; [Li, Yun] CSIRO Computat Informat, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia; [Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China ; LTO
关键词Hot Spell Model Extreme Value Theory Cmip5
学科领域Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/14987
专题热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
通讯作者wenzhou@cityu.edu.hk
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Wang, Weiwen,Zhou, Wen,Li, Yun,et al. Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2015,44(9-10):2859-2872.
APA Wang, Weiwen,Zhou, Wen,Li, Yun,Wang, Xin,Wang, Dongxiao,&wenzhou@cityu.edu.hk.(2015).Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,44(9-10),2859-2872.
MLA Wang, Weiwen,et al."Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 44.9-10(2015):2859-2872.
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