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Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China
Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen; Li, Yun; Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao;
Source PublicationCLIMATE DYNAMICS
AbstractA hot spell is an extreme weather event with one or more consecutive days with daily maximum temperature exceeding a certain threshold of high temperature. Statistical modeling of summer hot spells in China during 1960-2005 and their simulations in the historical experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are investigated in this study. A technique called the hot spell model (HSM), introduced by Furrer et al. (Clim Res 43:191-205, 2010) for modeling hot spells by extending the point process approach to extreme value theory, is applied. Specifically, the frequency of summer hot spells is modeled by a Poisson distribution, their intensity is modeled by a generalized Pareto distribution, and their duration is modeled by a geometric distribution. Results show that the HSM permits realistic modeling of summer hot spells in China. Trends in the frequency, duration, and intensity of hot spells were estimated based on the HSM for the observed period from 1960 to 2005. Furthermore, the performance in simulating hot spell characteristics and trends from the CMIP5 historical run were assessed based on the HSM. Climate models with good performance were selected to conduct an ensemble projection of hot spell intensity, frequency, and duration and their trends in future decades.
Department[Wang, Weiwen; Zhou, Wen] City Univ Hong Kong, Sch Energy & Environm, Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Ctr, Hong Kong 00852, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; [Li, Yun] CSIRO Computat Informat, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia; [Wang, Xin; Wang, Dongxiao] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China ; LTO
KeywordHot Spell Model Extreme Value Theory Cmip5
Subject AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Document Type期刊论文
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Weiwen,Zhou, Wen,Li, Yun,et al. Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2015,44(9-10):2859-2872.
APA Wang, Weiwen,Zhou, Wen,Li, Yun,Wang, Xin,Wang, Dongxiao,& modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,44(9-10),2859-2872.
MLA Wang, Weiwen,et al."Statistical modeling and CMIP5 simulations of hot spell changes in China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 44.9-10(2015):2859-2872.
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