A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13
Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng; Gu, Xiangqian; Chen, Shumin; Wang, Dongxiao; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Shuwen; Lv, Weihua; Wang, Chunzai; Liu, Bei; Liu, Duanling; Lai, Zhijuan; Lai, Wenfeng; Wang, Shengan; Feng, Yerong; Zhang, Junfeng; speng@scsio.ac.cn
2015
发表期刊WEATHER AND FORECASTING
卷号30期号:2页码:471-485
文章类型0882-8156
摘要A real-time regional forecasting system for the South China Sea (SCS), called the Experimental Platform of Marine Environment Forecasting (EPMEF), is introduced in this paper. EPMEF consists of a regional atmosphere model, a regional ocean model, and a wave model, and performs a real-time run four times a day. Output from the Global Forecast System (GFS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as the initial and boundary conditions of two nested domains of the atmosphere model, which can exert a constraint on the development of small- and mesoscale atmospheric perturbations through dynamical downscaling. The forecasted winds at 10-m height from the atmosphere model are used to drive the ocean and wave models. As an initial evaluation, a census on the track predictions of 44 tropical cyclones (TCs) during 2011-13 indicates that the performance of EPMEF is very encouraging and comparable to those of other official agencies worldwide. In particular, EPMEF successfully predicted several abnormal typhoon tracks including the sharp recurving of Megi (2010) and the looping of Roke (2011). Further analysis reveals that the dynamically downscaled GFS forecasts from the most updated forecast cycle and the optimal combination of different microphysics and PBL schemes primarily contribute to the good performance of EPMEF in TC track forecasting. EPMEF, established primarily for research purposes with the potential to be implemented into operations, provides valuable information not only to the operational forecasters of local marine/meteorological agencies or international TC forecast centers, but also to other stakeholders such as the fishing industry and insurance companies.
部门归属[Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng; Chen, Shumin; Wang, Dongxiao; Liu, Bei; Liu, Duanling; Lai, Zhijuan; Lai, Wenfeng; Wang, Shengan] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Gu, Xiangqian] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Wang, Hui] Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Bei] Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China; [Lv, Weihua] Maoming Meteorol Bur, Maoming, Peoples R China; [Wang, Chunzai] NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA; [Liu, Duanling; Feng, Yerong] Meteorol Ctr Guangdong Prov, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Lai, Zhijuan; Zhang, Junfeng] State Ocean Adm, South China Sea Marine Predict Ctr, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China ; LTO
关键词Tropical Cyclones Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasting Operational Forecasting Short-range Prediction Regional Models
学科领域Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/15104
专题热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
通讯作者speng@scsio.ac.cn
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Peng, Shiqiu,Li, Yineng,Gu, Xiangqian,et al. A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13[J]. WEATHER AND FORECASTING,2015,30(2):471-485.
APA Peng, Shiqiu.,Li, Yineng.,Gu, Xiangqian.,Chen, Shumin.,Wang, Dongxiao.,...&speng@scsio.ac.cn.(2015).A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13.WEATHER AND FORECASTING,30(2),471-485.
MLA Peng, Shiqiu,et al."A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13".WEATHER AND FORECASTING 30.2(2015):471-485.
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