SCSIO OpenIR  > 热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13
Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng; Gu, Xiangqian; Chen, Shumin; Wang, Dongxiao; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Shuwen; Lv, Weihua; Wang, Chunzai; Liu, Bei; Liu, Duanling; Lai, Zhijuan; Lai, Wenfeng; Wang, Shengan; Feng, Yerong; Zhang, Junfeng; speng@scsio.ac.cn
2015
Source PublicationWEATHER AND FORECASTING
Volume30Issue:2Pages:471-485
Subtype0882-8156
AbstractA real-time regional forecasting system for the South China Sea (SCS), called the Experimental Platform of Marine Environment Forecasting (EPMEF), is introduced in this paper. EPMEF consists of a regional atmosphere model, a regional ocean model, and a wave model, and performs a real-time run four times a day. Output from the Global Forecast System (GFS) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used as the initial and boundary conditions of two nested domains of the atmosphere model, which can exert a constraint on the development of small- and mesoscale atmospheric perturbations through dynamical downscaling. The forecasted winds at 10-m height from the atmosphere model are used to drive the ocean and wave models. As an initial evaluation, a census on the track predictions of 44 tropical cyclones (TCs) during 2011-13 indicates that the performance of EPMEF is very encouraging and comparable to those of other official agencies worldwide. In particular, EPMEF successfully predicted several abnormal typhoon tracks including the sharp recurving of Megi (2010) and the looping of Roke (2011). Further analysis reveals that the dynamically downscaled GFS forecasts from the most updated forecast cycle and the optimal combination of different microphysics and PBL schemes primarily contribute to the good performance of EPMEF in TC track forecasting. EPMEF, established primarily for research purposes with the potential to be implemented into operations, provides valuable information not only to the operational forecasters of local marine/meteorological agencies or international TC forecast centers, but also to other stakeholders such as the fishing industry and insurance companies.
Department[Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng; Chen, Shumin; Wang, Dongxiao; Liu, Bei; Liu, Duanling; Lai, Zhijuan; Lai, Wenfeng; Wang, Shengan] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Gu, Xiangqian] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Wang, Hui] Natl Marine Environm Forecasting Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Bei] Guangdong Ocean Univ, Coll Ocean & Meteorol, Zhanjiang, Peoples R China; [Lv, Weihua] Maoming Meteorol Bur, Maoming, Peoples R China; [Wang, Chunzai] NOAA, Atlantic Oceanog & Meteorol Lab, Miami, FL 33149 USA; [Liu, Duanling; Feng, Yerong] Meteorol Ctr Guangdong Prov, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Lai, Zhijuan; Zhang, Junfeng] State Ocean Adm, South China Sea Marine Predict Ctr, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China ; LTO
KeywordTropical Cyclones Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasting Operational Forecasting Short-range Prediction Regional Models
Subject AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/15104
Collection热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
Corresponding Authorspeng@scsio.ac.cn
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Peng, Shiqiu,Li, Yineng,Gu, Xiangqian,et al. A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13[J]. WEATHER AND FORECASTING,2015,30(2):471-485.
APA Peng, Shiqiu.,Li, Yineng.,Gu, Xiangqian.,Chen, Shumin.,Wang, Dongxiao.,...&speng@scsio.ac.cn.(2015).A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13.WEATHER AND FORECASTING,30(2),471-485.
MLA Peng, Shiqiu,et al."A Real-Time Regional Forecasting System Established for the South China Sea and Its Performance in the Track Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones during 2011-13".WEATHER AND FORECASTING 30.2(2015):471-485.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
A Real-Time Regional(3237KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SAApplication Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.