Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones
Lintner, Benjamin R.; Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David; Anderson, Bruce T.; Niznik, Matthew J.; Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Lintner, BR (reprint author), Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA.
2016
发表期刊JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
卷号121期号:19页码:11590-11607
摘要Current-generation climate models exhibit various errors or biases in both the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation relative to observations. In this study, empirical orthogonal function analysis is applied to the space-model index domain of precipitation over the Pacific from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations to explore systematic spread of simulated precipitation characteristics across the ensemble. Two significant modes of spread, generically termed principal uncertainty patterns (PUPs), are identified in the December-January-February precipitation climatology: the leading PUP is associated with the meridional width of deep convection, while the second is associated with tradeoffs in precipitation intensity along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the spurious Southern Hemisphere ITCZ. An important factor distinguishing PUPs from the analogy to time series analysis is that the modes can reflect either true systematic intermodel variance patterns or internal variability. In order to establish that the PUPS reflect the former, three complementary tests are performed by using preindustrial control simulations: a bootstrap significance test for reproducibility of the intermodel spatial patterns, a check for robustness over very long climatological averages, and a test on the loadings of these patterns relative to interdecadal sampling. Composite analysis based on these PUPs demonstrates physically plausible relationships to CMIP5 ensemble spread in simulated sea surface temperatures (SSTs), circulation, and moisture. Further analysis of atmosphere-only, prescribed SST simulations demonstrates decreased spread in the spatial distribution of precipitation, while substantial spread in intensity remains. Key Points Systematic spread in CMIP5 simulation of Pacific region rainfall is investigated by using empirical mode reduction techniques Two significant modes of model spread are identified for the DJF rainfall climatology These modes are interpreted in terms of spread in simulated patterns of SST and circulation
部门归属[Lintner, Benjamin R.] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA; [Langenbrunner, Baird; Neelin, J. David] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA; [Anderson, Bruce T.] Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA; [Niznik, Matthew J.] Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, Coral Gables, FL 33124 USA; [Li, Gen] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Xie, Shang-Ping] Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA USA ; LTO
关键词Cmip5 Models Precipitation Tropical Pacific Itcz Spcz Principal Uncertainty Patterns
学科领域Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/15243
专题热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
通讯作者Lintner, BR (reprint author), Rutgers State Univ, Dept Environm Sci, New Brunswick, NJ 08901 USA.
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lintner, Benjamin R.,Langenbrunner, Baird,Neelin, J. David,et al. Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2016,121(19):11590-11607.
APA Lintner, Benjamin R..,Langenbrunner, Baird.,Neelin, J. David.,Anderson, Bruce T..,Niznik, Matthew J..,...&Lintner, BR .(2016).Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,121(19),11590-11607.
MLA Lintner, Benjamin R.,et al."Characterizing CMIP5 model spread in simulated rainfall in the Pacific Intertropical Convergence and South Pacific Convergence Zones".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 121.19(2016):11590-11607.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 文献类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
Characterizing CMIP5(3753KB)期刊论文作者接受稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SA请求全文
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。