A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean
Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Du, Yan; Li, G (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, 164 West Xingang Rd, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
2016
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
卷号29期号:15页码:5589-5608
摘要Climate models consistently project reduced surface warming over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (IO) under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This IO dipole (IOD)-like warming pattern, regarded as robust based on consistency among models by the new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, results in a large increase in the frequency of extreme positive IOD (pIOD) events, elevating the risk of climate and weather disasters in the future over IO rim countries. These projections, however, do not consider large model biases in both the mean state and interannual IOD variance. In particular, a "present-future relationship" is identified between the historical simulations and representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble: models with an excessive IOD amplitude bias tend to project a strong IOD-like warming pattern in themean and a large increase in extreme pIOD occurrences under increased GHG forcing. This relationship links the present simulation errors to future climate projections, and is also consistent with our understanding of Bjerknes ocean-atmosphere feedback. This study calibrates regional climate projections by using this present-future relationship and observed IOD amplitude. The results show that the projected IOD-like pattern of mean changes and frequency increase of extreme pIOD events are largely artifacts of model errors and unlikely to emerge in the future. These results illustrate that a robust projection may still be biased and it is important to consider the model bias effect.
部门归属[Li, Gen; Du, Yan] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, 164 West Xingang Rd, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Xie, Shang-Ping] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA; [Xie, Shang-Ping] Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao Collaborat Innovat Ctr Marine Sci & Techn, Key Lab Ocean Atmosphere Interact & Climate Univ, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China ; LTO
学科领域Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/15342
专题热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
通讯作者Li, G (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, 164 West Xingang Rd, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, Peoples R China.
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Li, Gen,Xie, Shang-Ping,Du, Yan,et al. A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2016,29(15):5589-5608.
APA Li, Gen,Xie, Shang-Ping,Du, Yan,&Li, G .(2016).A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,29(15),5589-5608.
MLA Li, Gen,et al."A Robust but Spurious Pattern of Climate Change in Model Projections over the Tropical Indian Ocean".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 29.15(2016):5589-5608.
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