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CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Nino and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century
Xu, K; Tam, CY; Zhu, CW; Liu, BQ; Wang, WQ; francis.tam@cuhk.edu.hk
2017
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Volume30Issue:3Pages:849-864
AbstractFuture projections of the eastern-Pacific (EP) and central-Pacific (CP) types of El Nino in the twenty-first century, as well as their associated tropical circulation and precipitation variability, are investigated using historical runs and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) simulations from 31 coupled models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). As inferred from CMIP5 models that best capture both El Nino flavors, EP El Nino sea surface temperature (SST) variability will become weaker in the future climate, while no robust change of CP El Nino SST is found. Models also reach no consensus on the future change of relative frequency from CP to EP El Nino. However, there are robust changes in the tropical overturning circulation and precipitation associated with both types of El Nino. Under a warmer climate, magnitudes of precipitation anomalies during EP El Nino are projected to increase, presenting significant enhancement of the dry (wet) signal over the western (central-eastern) Pacific. This is consistent with an accelerated hydrological cycle in the deep tropics; hence, a "wet get wetter'' picture appears under global warming, accompanied by a weakened anomalous Walker circulation. For CP El Nino, drier-than-normal conditions will be intensified over the tropical central-eastern Pacific in the future climate, with stronger anomalous sinking related to the strengthened North Pacific local Hadley cell. These results suggest that, besides the enhanced basic-state hydrological cycle over the tropics, other elements, such as the anomalous overturning circulation, might also play a role in determining the ENSO precipitation response to a warmer background climate.
Department[Xu, Kang; Wang, Weiqiang] Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Xu, Kang; Tam, Chi-Yung] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Earth Syst Sci Programme, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China; [Zhu, Congwen; Liu, Boqi] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Climate Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
Funding ProjectLTO
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/16428
Collection热带海洋环境国家重点实验室(LTO)
Corresponding Authorfrancis.tam@cuhk.edu.hk
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xu, K,Tam, CY,Zhu, CW,et al. CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Nino and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2017,30(3):849-864.
APA Xu, K,Tam, CY,Zhu, CW,Liu, BQ,Wang, WQ,&francis.tam@cuhk.edu.hk.(2017).CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Nino and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,30(3),849-864.
MLA Xu, K,et al."CMIP5 Projections of Two Types of El Nino and Their Related Tropical Precipitation in the Twenty-First Century".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 30.3(2017):849-864.
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