SCSIO OpenIR  > 海洋科技动态信息-印太暖池系统研究
Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability
Agudelo, PA; Hoyos, CD; Webster, PJ; Curry, JA; pagudelo@eas.gatech.edu
2009
Source PublicationCLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
Volume32Issue:6Pages:855-872
AbstractThe extended-range forecast skill of the ECMWF operational forecast model is evaluated during tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) events in the Indo-West Pacific warm pool. The experiment consists of ensemble extended serial forecasts including winter and summer ISO cases. The forecasts are compared with the ERA-40 analyses. The analysis focuses on understanding the origin of forecast errors by studying the vertical structure of relevant dynamical and moist convective features associated with the ISO. The useful forecast time scale for circulation anomalies is in average 13 days during winter compared to 7-8 days during summer. The forecast skill is not stationary and presents evidence of a flow-dependent nature, with states of the coupled system corresponding to long-lived convective envelopes associated with the ISO for which the skill is always low regardless of the starting date of the forecast. The model is not able to forecast skillfully the generation of specific humidity anomalies and results indicate that the convective processes in the model are associated with the erosion of the ISO forecast skill in the model. Circulation-associated anomalies are forecast better than moist convective associated anomalies. The model tends to generate a more stable atmosphere, limiting the model's capability to reproduce deep convective events, resulting in smaller humidity and circulation anomalies in the forecasts compared to those in ERA-40.
Department[Agudelo, P. A.; Hoyos, C. D.; Webster, P. J.; Curry, J. A.] Georgia Inst Technol, Sch Earth & Atmospher Sci, Atlanta, GA 30332 USA
KeywordIntraseasonal Oscillation Madden-julian Oscillation Asian Monsoon Forecasting Skill Numerical Modeling
Subject AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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Indexed Bysci
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.scsio.ac.cn/handle/344004/8419
Collection海洋科技动态信息-印太暖池系统研究
Corresponding Authorpagudelo@eas.gatech.edu
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Agudelo, PA,Hoyos, CD,Webster, PJ,et al. Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2009,32(6):855-872.
APA Agudelo, PA,Hoyos, CD,Webster, PJ,Curry, JA,&pagudelo@eas.gatech.edu.(2009).Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,32(6),855-872.
MLA Agudelo, PA,et al."Application of a serial extended forecast experiment using the ECMWF model to interpret the predictive skill of tropical intraseasonal variability".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 32.6(2009):855-872.
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